Cheadle result

CHEADLE RESULT


Mark Hunter (Liberal Democrats) 19,593

Stephen Day (Conservative) 15,936

Martin Miller (Labour) 1,739

Leslie Leggett (Veritas) 218

John Allman (Alliance for Change) 81


Majority 3,657
Turnout (55%)

2005: Lib Dem maj 4,020

Lib Dems hold Cheadle

Newsnight has said that the Conservatives have conceded defeat in the Cheadle by-election.

Will Rennard’s indignation strategy save Cheadle?

Can the Lib Dems make the leaflet “rapist” claim backfire?

In the closing phase of election campaigns parties often implement strategies designed solely to get their activists motivated and their supporters out to vote.

At the General Election Tony Blair created the “if one in 10 Labour supporters switches or stays at home then Michael Howard becomes PM” line to put fire into his troops and to scare wavering voters into going to the polls. The fact that the statement was untrue is irrelevant and was forgotten about on May 6th.

In Cheadle the Lib Dem campaign, led by Lord Rennard (right), has sought to make capital out of the juxtaposition of stories in a Tory leaflet which can be said to suggest that their candidate is a rapist - though on close examination it’s the party’s policies on crime that are being attacked. Judging by the response of many on this site the high indignation of “the Tories being reduced to this” seems to have struck a chord - certainly with Lib Dem supporters.

But the cries of indignation have to be seen as just a tactic which is being pursued by the man with probably the best by-election record in British politics.
The Rennard approach is also aimed at the 2001 Labour supporters who moved to the Lib Dems on May 5th when the party was defending a majority of just 33 votes. If the Lib Dems can keep a substantial portion of that group on side then they are probably home and dry. If not then it could be very interesting.

The Cheadle betting has still been remarkably light - with just £4,500 being matched on the Betfair betting exchange. The market will stay open right through the day until the formal annoucement is made and we might see a lot of activity - particularly when the party machines start to get an idea of how they are doing.

The usual rule on by-election days is that the voting trend will start to show in the markets by about 6pm - and if big money starts piling on one of the parties then it will probably be based on reasonable information.


politicalbetting.com

Cheadle by-election

Cheadle by-election
Thursday 14 July 2005
THE CANDIDATES



John Allman
Alliance for Change – Suffering Little Children



Stephen Day
Conservative



Mark Hunter
Liberal Democrats



Leslie Leggett
Veritas



Martin Miller
Labour

Lib Dems still favourites

William Hill have made the Lib Dems 4/11 favourites to win the Cheadle Hulme by-election, with the Conservatives quoted at 2/1 and Labour the 33/1 outsiders.

Readabet.com

Conservatives scent win

Conservative hopes of registering their first by-election gain in more than 20 years have been rising ahead of the poll in the vacant Cheadle constituency.

Tory sources claim "very encouraging signs" that could lead to them winning the Cheshire seat and inflict defeat on the Liberal Democrats. That would increase the pressure on Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, who has faced a fresh call for him to be replaced over what one senior party member called his "lamentable" performance in charge of the party.

The call, from Donnachadh McCarthy, a former party national executive member who announced he was quitting the Liberal Democrats, was immediately dismissed by Mr Kennedy's aides.

They also denied rumours that defeat tomorrow could hasten a leadership challenge against Mr Kennedy.

The Conservatives have not gained a seat from another party at a by-election since 1982, when Dame Angela Rumbold won the south London seat of Merton, Mitcham and Morden.

Cheadle, on the outskirts of Stockport, is on the face of it unlikely territory for the Tories to end their long, dismal by-election run as the Liberal Democrats now hold it with a majority of more than 4,000.

But just as Tory hopes are rising, the Liberal Democrats, traditionally the by-election specialists, are under pressure early into this parliament. For the first time, Mr Kennedy's party is defending a seat at a by-election rather than attacking.

Cheadle was traditionally a Tory seat until Stephen Day, the sitting Conservative MP, lost to Liberal Democrat contender Patsy Calton in 2001.

Mrs Calton, originally elected on a majority of just 33, consolidated the gain on May 5.

Tomorrow's by-election was called after she died of cancer within weeks of being re-elected.

NEWS.Telegraph

Tory campaign has Lib Dem hallmark

CHARLES KENNEDY is having to endure a taste of his party’s own medicine as he fights off an aggressive Tory challenge in a by-election in Cheadle tomorrow.

The Conservatives are pouring huge resources into imitating Liberal Democrat by-election techniques, copying their tabloid newspapers from past campaigns and bar charts showing the Tories in close second place.

Even the core Tory message — that the Lib Dem candidate is not “local” — is lifted directly from the Lib Dems’ successful by-election victory at Romsey in 2000.

Mr Kennedy sorely needs a victory in Cheadle, amid a period of drift in which his ablest MPs complain privately of lack of leadership and his backbench MPs are restive. He is not under direct threat, as his chief rival is Simon Hughes, who has little support and many opponents among Lib Dem MPs. But Mr Kennedy needs to avoid further mishaps until the summer recess. He makes his fifth by-election visit to the constituency today.

The Lib Dems, used to the role of challengers in by-elections but not defenders, are nervous about their prospects in Cheadle. Patsy Calton, the Lib Dem MP who died of cancer three weeks after the general election, had built a personal following that may not transfer to her successor.

Michael Howard, making his second visit yesterday, was given a good reception by well-heeled shoppers. But, in Stockport’s affluent commuter belt, where residents are likened by some to the characters in Footballers’ Wives, there were signs that the Tories may have been too aggressive. One leaflet superimposed a local newspaper report of a rape over a headline saying “shocking crime record of Mark Hunter”, the Lib Dem candidate and leader of Stockport council. His party threatened legal action. Another ran a headline “Hunter in school cash scandal”, attributed to the Stockport Express, whose sister paper denounced it as a misrepresentation and attacked the Tory campaign in a front page editorial.

The Lib Dems and their predecessors have not had to defend a seat in a by-election since 1987, when the Liberals held Truro; the Tories have not gained a constituency in a by-election since Merton, Mitcham and Morden in 1982.

Times online

Neck and neck in Cheadle

It looks neck and neck in the Cheadle by-election, with a real possibility of the Conservatives winning a by-election from another party for the first time since Angela Rumbold won Mitcham and Morden in 1982.
The by-election was caused by the death of Patsy Calton weeks after she held the constituency at the General Election.

She won the seat in 2001 with a majority of 33, the smallest in the country.

Although unable to campaign because of a recurrence of her cancer, Patsy Calton increased her majority to 4,000.

The Lib Dem candidate this time is Mark Hunter, the leader of Stockport Council.

Big issue

He has come under pressure over the council's record on crime fighting.

The Tories have also made a big issue of the fact that he's an "outsider", living three miles away in Marple, whereas their candidate lives in the constituency.

Stephen Day was the Conservative MP from 1987 until 2001.

A backbencher, his main claim to fame was legislation for rear seat safety belts.

He lost to Calton in 2001 and again this May.

'Prosperous commuter land'

Labour's vote is heavily squeezed, although the candidate Martin Miller is highly regarded.

The constituency is prosperous suburban commuter land to the south of Manchester, with 88% of people owning their own homes.

It has the highest proportion of professional and managerial people north of Watford.

Ethnic communities are thin on the ground and the big issues of G8 and terrorism have barely impinged on the hand-to-hand fighting over local issues on crime and road congestion.


BBC North West

Alliance for Change

CLICK HERE TO SEE AVAILABLE LEAFLETS

Lib Dems website news

With polling day drawing closer, desperate Conservatives have turned nasty in an attempt to win over local voters.

While Mark Hunter has stuck to the issues that matter to local people, the Conservatives have bombarded residents with negative personal attacks both on the telephone and on leaflets.

Mark Hunter says, "Despite these negative attacks, I am really enjoying the campaign and we have been getting a great reaction on the doorsteps. Local people like what we are saying about the big issues in our area."

The by-election to elect the new MP for Cheadle constituency will take place on Thursday 14th July.


Cheadle Liberal Democrats

Conservative website news

“This by-election is about finding a true representative for the communities which make up the Cheadle constituency. The voters have a clear choice. That choice is between a candidate who represented the area in Parliament and has continued to work for local people, and a candidate who has never lived here or shown the slightest interest in the area, and, as leader of Stockport Borough Council, has given us the highest Council Tax in Greater Manchester and a series of poor policies on schools and highways which have let this area down."
Local candidate, Stephen Day


Cheadle Conservatives

Local coverage from Cheadle

Some local coverage from the Cheadle by-election can be found on the Gatley Community Discussion Board